On June 16, 2025, Shiba Inu (SHIB) witnessed a significant capitulation event as 211 million tokens were sold at a loss, marking the largest realized loss since March 2024. This sell-off, tracked by Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator, reflects a wave of short-term holders—often referred to as “weak hands”—exiting the market. Historically, such capitulation events have preceded local bottoms in SHIB’s price, as seen in March 2024 and March 2025, when similar sell-offs triggered 56% and 7.6% rallies respectively. The current event may signal a similar inflection point, provided long-term holders begin accumulating and technical resistance levels are breached.
Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle and Key Resistance Levels
Despite the bearish pressure, SHIB’s price structure is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, a technical formation that often precedes a breakout. If SHIB can break above the immediate resistance at $0.0000126 and flip the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.0000168, analysts forecast a potential 62% rally toward $0.0000205. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued at 37, indicating weak momentum. A further dip toward the oversold threshold of 30 could suggest seller exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for a bullish reversal if buying pressure returns.
Burn Rate Explosion: Over 112,000% Surge
Adding to the complexity, SHIB’s burn rate surged by over 112,000% in mid-June, with more than 116 million tokens permanently removed from circulation. Token burns are designed to reduce supply and introduce deflationary pressure, which can support long-term price appreciation. Despite this bullish supply-side signal, SHIB’s price has remained under pressure, suggesting that macro sentiment and technical resistance are currently outweighing the impact of tokenomics. Notably, over 527 trillion SHIB tokens are approaching profitability, which could trigger renewed interest if price momentum shifts.
Ecosystem Developments: Shibarium and the Alpha Layer
Beyond price action, the Shiba Inu ecosystem is undergoing a strategic transformation. The introduction of the Shib Alpha Layer, a privacy-focused upgrade built on Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), marks a significant leap in blockchain utility. Developed in collaboration with cryptography firm ZAMA, this technology enables smart contracts to compute on encrypted data without revealing the underlying information. This innovation has potential applications in sectors like healthcare, finance, and identity management. While this upgrade strengthens SHIB’s long-term fundamentals, it has yet to influence short-term price trends, which remain dominated by speculative sentiment and technical resistance.
Market Structure: Volume, Bollinger Bands, and RSI Trends
At the time of writing, SHIB is trading around $0.0000117, down over 12% on the weekly chart. Despite the decline, daily trading volume remains steady at approximately $153 million, indicating that investor interest has not evaporated. On the 4-hour chart, SHIB is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, a sign of sustained downward pressure. However, a recent bounce from $0.00001152 suggests that some buyers are stepping in. The RSI has begun to climb from 42.3, hinting at a potential bullish divergence if momentum continues to build.
Resistance Zones and Historical Patterns
SHIB faces strong resistance at $0.0000122, backed by above-average volume spikes during recent recovery attempts. A breakout above this level could trigger a short-term rally toward $0.000016, especially if the symmetrical triangle pattern resolves to the upside. Historical data supports this possibility: in March 2024, a sell-off of 884 million SHIB at a loss preceded a 56% rally, while in March 2025, a 141 million token dump led to a 7.6% rebound. If this pattern repeats, the current 211 million token capitulation could mark another local bottom.
Sentiment and the Road Ahead
While SHIB’s fundamentals are improving—evidenced by ecosystem upgrades, wallet growth, and deflationary mechanics—price action remains tethered to broader market sentiment. The meme coin’s recovery hinges on breaking key resistance levels and attracting long-term holders willing to absorb short-term volatility. Until then, SHIB’s price will likely remain range-bound, oscillating between technical support and resistance as traders await confirmation of a trend reversal.
Shogun Lin
