Assessment of Trump’s Crypto Policy Impact

Policy Background and Core Promises Review

Since his 2024 campaign, Trump made several key promises to the cryptocurrency industry, including establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, promoting regulatory relaxation, and supporting state-level legislation, with the aim of positioning the United States as a global crypto hub. His core commitments included: building a reserve based on confiscated crypto assets (locking approximately 200,000 bitcoins), dismissing SEC Chairman Gensler, opposing the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and encouraging state fiscal funds to allocate crypto assets.

However, there is a significant gap between policy implementation and market expectations. On March 7, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to launch the strategic reserve, but relying solely on forfeited assets with no incremental buying plan led Bitcoin to plunge 6% on the day, falling from USD 91,000 to USD 82,000. The anticipated “government buying” did not materialize, raising investor doubts about policy execution.

Policy Implementation Progress and Market Shock

Although Trump’s crypto policy carries symbolic significance, its actual effects have been limited:

1. The “stock lock” mode of the strategic reserve lacks incremental capital support, failing to ease market liquidity pressures. Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad noted that if the reserve scale cannot expand, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative might be undermined.
2. Progress on SEC regulatory relaxation has been slow. Despite Trump’s promise to dismiss Gensler, complex legal procedures mean short-term changes remain unlikely. SEC investigations into projects like World Liberty Financial continue, heightening market uncertainty.
3. State-level legislative efforts also face resistance. For example, Utah’s HB0230 bill permits allocation of 5% of state funds to Bitcoin, but similar proposals in Montana, Wyoming, and other states have been rejected due to volatility risks. Diverging local policies reflect limited acceptance of crypto assets within traditional fiscal systems.
4. Macroeconomic factors further impacted the market. On March 4, 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff increase on Canada and Mexico, triggering simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks and the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price dropped from USD 92,000 to USD 78,000, and derivative markets saw liquidations exceeding USD 1.1 billion in 24 hours. Trade protectionism increased inflation expectations, weakening the appeal of risk assets.

Bitcoin Price Movement and On-Chain Signals

Market adjustments in response to policy expectations have pushed Bitcoin into a technical correction phase. On March 9, during a Fox News interview, Trump acknowledged “short-term economic pain,” and Bitcoin broke below the key support level of USD 82,000, prompting leveraged funds to exit. On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s RSI on the daily chart dropped to 28, entering an oversold region, though short-term sentiment remains bearish. Should the price fall below USD 78,000, it might further decline to USD 72,000 (based on the VanEck model), triggering over USD 2 billion in long liquidations. Investors can track Bitcoin’s real-time price on JuCoin to avoid missing trading opportunities.

Institutional fund outflows are intensifying volatility. Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of USD 870 million over the week, and BlackRock’s IBIT saw its first single-day net redemption, indicating rising risk-aversion among traditional capital. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to accumulate through spot exchanges; net inflows into Bitcoin on OKX and Coinbase increased by 12% and 8%, respectively, reflecting market divergence.

Future Risks and Market Outlook

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price is under dual pressure from policy and macroeconomic factors. If federal budget negotiations on March 14 fail to clarify state-level reserve coordination mechanisms, market confidence may be further eroded. Technically, the USD 78,000–82,000 range is a critical volatility zone where a solid bottom requires volume support. In the long term, Bitcoin’s halving effect and institutional adoption remain core supports, but policy disputes could delay the next bull cycle.

Regulatory risks are also significant. Expanded SEC classification of crypto securities, particularly if investigations target Trump-affiliated projects like World Liberty Financial, could further fuel market panic. Moreover, if Trump’s tariff policy spurs an inflation rebound, it might force the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, further compressing risk asset valuations.

Investors should monitor the pace of policy implementation and changes in on-chain data to find structural opportunities amid volatility. The long-term value of the crypto market will depend on technological innovation and regulatory progress rather than short-term political promises. Once the “promised dividends” fade, rational assessment of fundamentals and macro trends will be key to making informed investment decisions.