Bitcoin’s price journey through late 2024 and early 2025 reveals a tale of two distinct quarters. Q4 2024 showcased remarkable growth in BTC monthly returns, followed by a challenging Q1 2025 that erased a significant portion of those gains. The BTC monthly returns data highlights a striking contrast between these consecutive quarters, demonstrating how quickly market sentiment can shift in the cryptocurrency space.
Overview Of Bitcoin Performance
Q4 2024 delivered exceptional BTC monthly returns for investors, with the quarter achieving a cumulative return of approximately 45.08%. This robust performance was driven primarily by an extraordinarily strong November, which alone contributed over 37% to Bitcoin’s price growth. In contrast, Q1 2025 reversed course significantly, posting a negative BTC monthly return of approximately 10.31% for the quarter, marking Bitcoin’s worst first-quarter performance since 2018.
As the chart below demonstrates, the BTC monthly returns varied dramatically across these two quarters. November 2024 stood out as the strongest month, while February 2025 was the weakest.
| Month | BTC Monthly Return (%) |
| Oct 2024 | +10.86 |
| Nov 2024 | +37.36 |
| Dec 2024 | -3.14 |
| Jan 2025 | +9.48 |
| Feb 2025 | -17.62 |
| Mar 2025 | -2.17 |
Monthly Returns Analysis: Q4 2024
Q4 2024 represented one of Bitcoin’s strongest quarters in recent years for BTC monthly returns, with the following performance:
- October 2024: +10.86%
- November 2024: +37.36%
- December 2024: -3.14%
The fourth quarter began with solid growth in October, followed by exceptional BTC monthly returns in November. This period coincided with growing optimism in cryptocurrency markets following the US presidential election results. Investors anticipated crypto-friendly policies from the incoming Trump administration. While December experienced a slight pullback (3.14%), it did little to diminish the quarter’s overall excellent performance of 47.5%.
During this period, total crypto market capitalization trended upward. Bitcoin strengthened its market dominance. This surge in Bitcoin’s value also coincided with significant institutional accumulation. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reported the acquisition of 218,887 bitcoins for $20.5 billion in Q4 2024 alone.
Monthly Returns Analysis: Q1 2025
Q1 2025 presented a stark contrast to the preceding quarter for BTC monthly returns. Each month told a different story:
- January 2025: +9.48%
- February 2025: -17.62%
- March 2025: -2.17%
January initially continued the bullish momentum from late 2024. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $106,182 on January 22, 2025, shortly after President Trump’s inauguration. This represented the peak of market optimism surrounding potential crypto-friendly policies from the new administration.
However, this optimism quickly faded in February, which saw a dramatic 17.62% decline in BTC monthly returns, significantly underperforming against Bitcoin’s historical February average return of 13.62%. The downward trend continued in March, though at a decelerated pace (2.17%), bringing the total Q1 2025 decline to 11.82% according to multiple market reports.
This decline was particularly striking given that Q1 is historically one of the stronger periods for BTC monthly returns. According to market data, Bitcoin’s performance in Q1 2025 was its weakest since 2018, a year marked by a brutal bear market.
Comparative Analysis & Market Context
The contrast between these two consecutive quarters highlights Bitcoin’s notorious volatility and how quickly market sentiment can shift for BTC monthly returns. Bitcoin’s price moved from approximately $93,429 at the end of December 2024 to about $80,200 by late March 2025. This represented a significant pullback from its January peak of $106,182. While Q4 2024’s strong BTC monthly returns aligned with Bitcoin’s typically robust fourth quarters (particularly November, which has historically averaged 36.16% returns), Q1 2025 deviated significantly from historical patterns. January typically averages 9.19% (which it largely matched with 9.48%). February’s 17.62% decline was far below its historical average of 12.58%. Notably, Ethereum performed even worse during Q1 2025, with a massive 37.98% decline compared to Bitcoin’s 11.82%, marking its most disappointing opening quarter since 2018.
Several key factors contributed to the contrasting quarterly performances of BTC monthly returns. The initial surge coincided with expectations around Trump’s crypto-friendly policies. Bitcoin reached its all-time high shortly after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. The subsequent decline has been attributed to macroeconomic pressures and policy uncertainties, particularly following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies. Despite the market downturn in Q1, on-chain data revealed accumulation by Bitcoin whales. The number of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC reached 1,993 by late March 2025: the highest since December 2024, representing a 2.6% increase over a five-week period. Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges fell to 7.53% by March 31, 2025: the lowest since February 2018, indicating long-term holding behavior and potential supply scarcity.
Additional Insights
While the Q4 2024 rally was largely driven by renewed institutional interest and optimism over potential regulatory clarity in the U.S., the Q1 2025 downturn reflected broader macroeconomic headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s hints at maintaining higher interest rates for longer, coupled with global economic uncertainties and new U.S. trade tariffs, dampened risk appetite across financial markets, including crypto. Additionally, profit-taking by short-term holders after Bitcoin’s all-time high contributed to increased volatility and downward pressure in February and March for BTC monthly returns.
Despite the correction, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remained robust. On-chain data showed continued accumulation by long-term holders and a declining supply on exchanges: both historically bullish indicators. Furthermore, the rapid rebound in network activity and transaction volumes in late March and early April 2025 suggests that underlying demand for Bitcoin remains strong. This positions the asset for potential recovery as macro conditions stabilize.
BTC Monthly Returns Highlight Volatility In Q4 2024 & Q1 2025
The contrasting performances of BTC monthly returns in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 exemplify the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility and sensitivity to market sentiment. Q4 2024 represented one of Bitcoin’s strongest quarters in recent times, fueled by pre-inauguration optimism about crypto-friendly policies from the incoming Trump administration. However, Q1 2025 erased a significant portion of these gains amid economic uncertainties and policy concerns.
Despite this correction, on-chain metrics indicated continued accumulation by large holders and declining exchange supply, potentially setting the foundation for future price appreciation. As of April 16, 2025, Bitcoin has stabilized somewhat at around $84,308, suggesting a potential recovery from the Q1 lows.
For investors, these contrasting quarters highlight the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, its correlation with macroeconomic factors, and the need for a long-term perspective when participating in this volatile asset class. Tracking BTC monthly returns provides critical insights into market trends and investor sentiment, guiding strategic decisions in the cryptocurrency space.
Michael Crag
