Over the past two weeks, BTC volatility expanded, price pulled back to the 112000 area, and intraday probes repeatedly tested support; near-term rebounds face resistance at 116000. Has the five-wave structure from the 2022 low at $15,476 completed, and is the bull market over? This Market Insights article offers actionable assessments and scenario mapping from multiple datasets (not investment advice).
Summary: If 112000 breaks, BTC may revisit the 100000–103000 zone to seek a bottom; if price reclaims 116000 on volume, the rebound window extends. On-chain valuation, ETF flows, and U.S. equities linkage will set the medium-term direction.
Price action review: from 15476 to 124000
Higher-timeframe structure
From the November 2022 swing low around $15,476, BTC started an uptrend; under classical Elliott interpretation, the current high-level range and pullback can be read as the “post–Wave 5 correction” starting point. (Wave counts are interpretive and require confirmation signals.)
Recent rhythm
After failing above 120000, BTC shifted into a drifting downtrend, with a dense daily-volume node near 112000; immediate upside resistance sits at 116000, while strong downside support is around the 100000 handle (round number + psychological level).
How to validate the key levels?
Only when BTC] reclaims 116000 with 4-hour volume and open interest expanding in sync can we upgrade “bear market rally” to “effective rebound.” If heavy volume breakdowns persist along the 112000 lower band, prepare for a secondary test into 100000–103000.
Technicals: structure, moving averages, and momentum
Moving averages & Fibonacci
Using 15476 to the recent high for Fibonacci pulls, the 0.236–0.382 band aligns with 112000–100000, explaining why this zone acts as the “hold or fail” divider.
RSI/momentum
Daily RSI retreated from “overbought” to ~50; coupled with lighter down days, this shows bullish momentum fading. If RSI slips under 45 with growing bearish divergence, guard against a deeper ABC correction.
Wave-structure checklist:
-
Did 112000 break and fail on a throwback?
-
Did 116000 break and then hold on a retest?
-
Do 4-hour RSI “bullish divergence” and OBV stabilization appear together for a higher-probability rebound continuation?
Confirming signals matter more than top- or bottom-picking; trend trading centers on “breakout → retest → continuation.”
On-chain valuation & supply–demand: MVRV, SOPR, miners, and long-term holders
MVRV signals “risk bands”
Glassnode labels MVRV (market cap/realized cap) < 1.0 as “low risk” and > 2.4 as “high risk.” If BTC] keeps retracing, MVRV may fall from the high band, favoring a medium-term rebalance.
Behavior & cost
If SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) breaks back below 1, it implies “selling at cost or at a loss,” typically consistent with trend cooling; pair this with the 112000 watch for better read-through.
Miners & long-term holders
Miner distribution often accelerates during pullbacks; long-term holders’ net distribution at highs → deceleration on the way down is a common transition from top to mid-cycle pause.
ETF flows
Farside data indicates early-August U.S. spot BTC] ETFs saw alternating daily net inflows/outflows with rising volatility; capital flows are increasingly coupled with price.
Derivatives: funding, open interest, and liquidation bands
Funding logic
Rising positive funding means longs pay and sentiment runs hot; negative funding suggests the opposite. Funding is “rates + basis” in essence; extremes often coincide with short-term pullbacks or squeezes.
Open interest (OI) & liquidation clusters
If BTC keeps stabbing 112000 while OI climbs, beware of “stacked leverage getting harvested the other way.” If price drops toward 100000 and tags lower liquidation bands, expect either a swift “V-reversal” or a waterfall—often one of the two.
Strategy implications
Intraday, use “funding inflection + OI confirmation/divergence” to judge real vs. false breaks; candlestick shapes alone are noisy.
Market sentiment & social
Sentiment gauges
The Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me) reads 0–100; >60 is “greed,” <40 “fear.” As of Aug 19, third-party aggregators showed ~60 (slightly optimistic), consistent with the recent “high-level range → pullback” sequence.
Narrative layer
AI, compute, and spot ETFs remain mid-cycle pillars; yet high-frequency headlines (regulatory hearings, mining policy, exchange incidents, etc.) can amplify BTC] intraday swings.
U.S. equities linkage & macro: correlation rising
CME research notes that since 2020, BTC’s correlation with U.S. equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100) has been higher, with rolling correlations often 0.3–0.5. In short: when tech sells off, BTC] shows higher beta. Track U.S. yields and liquidity (FOMC, Treasury flows) alongside.
Key information flows: tailwinds and headwinds coexist
Potential tailwinds
Spot ETF net inflows re-accelerating and large banks allocating on-balance-sheet;
Sentiment stays “mildly optimistic,” on-chain valuation eases from highs;
A September Fed rate-cut expectation.
Potential headwinds
Tech-heavy U.S. equities drawdowns trigger “correlation selloffs”;
Funding persistently positive and rising—leverage froth building;c
Short-term ETF net outflows plus macro uncertainty (sticky inflation, rate-path repricing).
Multi-scenario paths: base / bearish / bullish
Base case
Chop between 112000—116000, building a 4-hour platform before a break. If 116000 holds, targets 118500/120000.
Bearish case
Volume break of 112000 triggers tests of 108000 and 100000–103000; a 100000 failure invites a fuller ABC correction with longer time.
Bullish case
External capital + headlines align; spot ETF sees consecutive net inflows, funding normalizes; BTC] breaks 116000 with strong candles, confirms on retest, and extends daily into 122000–125000.
Trading framework & risk controls
-
Match timeframe: positions on daily; swing/intraday on 4H/1H. Manage stops and sizing per timeframe.
-
Confirmation first: prioritize confirmed retests of 116000 over “chasing the first green bar”; prioritize failed throwbacks under 112000 over “blind chasing shorts.”
-
Indicator trio: price-volume + funding + OI—use all three; sentiment is supportive only.
-
Event calendar: FOMC, CPI, NFP, ETF monthly/weekly rolls; de-leverage around events.
-
Sizing & risk: risk ≤ 1–2% of equity per trade; cut leverage and frequency after streak losses.
Is the bull market over?
Blend “structure + flows + macro”:
Structurally, BTC may have completed five waves, but confirmation needs “112000 breakdown + inability to retake 116000,” i.e., time for price;
Flows: spot ETF in/outflows alternate, with no one-sided inflection yet;
Macro: rising linkage with U.S. equities means tech’s medium-term path shapes BTC] tempo;
Thus, this looks more like a mid-cycle correction or a tug-of-war top build than a confirmed “bull to bear” turn. Let price speak: only a high-volume failure of 100000 argues for systematically lowering medium-term exposure and expectations.
FAQ
Q1: Why 112000/116000?
They overlap recent high-volume nodes and pullback highs, useful as “bear/bull divider and rebound confirmation” pivots.
Q2: How critical is 100000?
A round-number confluence with Fibonacci retrace bands—key for mid-term bull/bear debate; a break increases cascade-liquidation risk.
Q3: Is the impact of ETF flows on BTC overstated?
Short-term impact depends on net flow cadence; early August showed “alternating daily positives/negatives,” aligning with higher volatility.
Q4: How to read funding for sentiment?
Persistent positive and rising funding = longs “paying rent”; inverse means shorts pay. Extremes often coincide with moves the other way.
Q5: How to handle the U.S. equities linkage?
Use Nasdaq futures/U.S. yields as “external variables,” and reduce leverage in event weeks per CME correlation research.
Key Takeaways
BTC is battling within 112000–116000; losing 112000 opens 100000, while reclaiming 116000 is needed for a meaningful rebound.
On-chain valuation (MVRV), ETF flows, and the funding+OI combo will decide “dead-cat bounce or second test.”
Correlation with U.S. tech is up; macro events and big-tech swings amplify BTC] short-term risk.
Neason Oliver
