Recent BTC Price Movement
Since April 2025, BTC has rebounded strongly from $75,000 to $106,000, just shy of the historical high of $109,000. This rally has been driven by multiple factors:
- Macro policy shift: The U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement eased trade tensions and improved market risk appetite;
- Institutional capital inflows: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 19 consecutive days, with a total exceeding $1.03 billion;
- Technical support: On-chain data shows long-term holders (1-2 years) are accumulating, and the MVRV Z-score (2.3) indicates the market remains healthy.
This Market Insights article Analyzing the recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price and future market direction to provide strategic guidance for investors.
However, the U.S. CPI data released on May 13 is a key short-term variable. If the data exceeds expectations, it could fuel Fed rate hike expectations and trigger a Bitcoin correction; if below expectations, it may push the price past previous highs.
CPI’s Impact Mechanism
CPI data impacts the Bitcoin market through the following pathways:
Interest rate expectations: If CPI YoY exceeds the expected 2.4%, the market may bet on a Fed rate cut delay, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets;
Derivative liquidation risks: CME Bitcoin futures open interest is at a record high, with over 80% leveraged longs, possibly leading to mass liquidation after the data release;
Institutional strategy adjustment: April 2025 data showed a 3.8% BTC surge when CPI was lower than expected, and up to 7% drop when higher.
A case in point: after April’s CPI release, BTC fell 7% within 4 hours to $77,550 but quickly rebounded as institutions bought the dip.
Technical Analysis & Key Support Levels
Bitcoin currently faces two technical scenarios:
- Break through previous high ($109,000): If sustained, a new rally could target the $120K–$150K range predicted by Standard Chartered;
- Double top correction: If it fails to break through, a monthly double top could form, with mid-term supports at $94,000 (April’s range center) and $88,000.
On-chain data shows around $2 billion in buy orders near $94,000, while $3.5 billion in sell orders suppress the price above $109,000.
Institutional Trends & Market Liquidity
Institutional activity provides fundamental support:
- MicroStrategy keeps buying: Acquired 27,200 BTC in Q1 2025, holding 214,246 BTC in total, about 1% of circulation;
- Spot ETF flow effects: BlackRock’s IBIT fund had a weekly inflow of $356 million. Market maker Jump Trading pledged $80 million liquidity support;
- Emerging market expansion: Bitcoin payment adoption grows in Argentina, India, and other regions; USDC market cap surpasses $60 billion.
Investors can track Bitcoin capital flows in real time via the JuCoin Market page.
Risks & Strategy Recommendations
Short-term Risks
Higher-than-expected CPI: If CPI > 2.4%, BTC could drop to $94,000;
Regulatory uncertainty: The SEC is reviewing the compliance of “entertainment asset securitization,” which could affect derivatives trading;
Technical selling pressure: Short-term holders (<155 days) have an average cost of $98,500, near breakeven and prone to stop-loss triggers.
Investor Strategy
1 hour after data release: Watch for price direction and short-term trading opportunities;
Buy the dip: If BTC drops to the $94K–$88K range, consider phased entry aiming for 30–50% annual gains;
Hedging tools: Use the JuCoin staking platform to lock in yields and reduce volatility.
Outlook & Industry Implications
Long-term Bitcoin drivers remain:
Inflation hedge: Global M2 grew 7% YoY; institutions view Bitcoin as “digital gold” against currency depreciation;
Regulatory progress: Regions like Hong Kong and the EU are advancing crypto custody licensing, reducing policy uncertainty.
As ARK Invest predicts, Bitcoin may surpass $1 million in the future. But in the short term, beware of overheating and regulatory flip-flops. Investors should balance returns with risk and avoid excessive leverage.
Neason Oliver
