Tariff Upgrade Background and Global Links to Cryptocurrencies
The Trump administration announced that tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. would be raised from 21% to 54%, effective April 2. This policy not only intensifies global trade tensions but also directly impacts a core segment of the cryptocurrency industry—the China-dominated mining rig supply chain. Approximately 70% of mining hardware is produced by Chinese manufacturers such as Bitmain and MicroBT, while the U.S.—the country with the fastest-growing Bitcoin mining hashrate (accounting for 38% of global hashrate)—relies heavily on these Chinese-made rigs. The tariff hike increases mining rig import costs by 17%-18%, putting smaller mining operations under pressure and further concentrating hashrate with well-capitalized, publicly listed U.S. mining companies.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury has frozen US$1.2 billion in on-chain assets allegedly used to evade tariffs via cryptocurrencies, signaling a tougher regulatory review of cross-border fund flows. This combination of measures not only suppresses traditional trade channels but also forces the market to seek alternative financial instruments such as stablecoins.
Restructuring the Mining Rig Supply Chain and Soaring Mining Costs
The tariff burden imposed on Chinese mining rig manufacturers is being passed on to the end market, directly driving up rig prices. For example, the landed cost of an Antminer S21 in the U.S. has risen from US$28,000 at the end of 2024 to US$33,000, extending the investment payback period from 14 to 18 months. As a result, some North American mining farms are shifting to the used equipment market or seeking partnerships with contract manufacturers in countries such as Malaysia and Kazakhstan.
However, supply chain shifts take time. Bitmain estimates that its Texas factory will reach mass production by Q3 2025, and in the short term, delayed deliveries of mining rigs may slow down the growth of Bitcoin network hashrate. Historical data shows that fluctuations in hashrate correlate strongly with Bitcoin prices – during a 12% drop in hashrate in Q3 2024, Bitcoin’s price fell by 28%. The market must remain alert to similar risks.
Stablecoins: The “Shadow Dollar” Rising Amid Trade Wars
The new tariff policy has spurred a safe-haven demand for stablecoins. In countries with capital controls such as Argentina and Nigeria, over-the-counter premiums for USDT/USDC can reach 20%-30%. Enterprises use on-chain stablecoins to conduct cross-border settlements, avoiding the high fees and delays associated with traditional banks. In March 2025, the global weekly net inflow into stablecoins reached US$4.7 billion, a record high.
This trend could weaken the Federal Reserve’s control over monetary policy. Stablecoin issuance relies on U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral, but its liquidity creation mechanism operates independently of the traditional financial system. If the U.S. continues to expand its tariff measures, stablecoins may become an unintentional driver of “de-dollarization,” potentially even challenging the status of sovereign currencies.
Market Volatility and Institutional Strategy Adjustments
In the short term, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen to 0.78, indicating heightened sensitivity of the crypto market to macroeconomic risks. After the announcement of the new tariff policy, Bitcoin quickly dropped from US$87,000 to US$83,000, and within 24 hours, US$2.1 billion in leveraged positions in the derivatives market were liquidated.
However, long-term investors are repositioning. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by US$2.5 billion in January 2025, and institutions such as BlackRock are steadily accumulating via spot ETFs. Market views diverge: the bearish camp expects that the tariffs could trigger stagflation and force the Fed to postpone rate cuts, while the bullish camp bets on Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes—similar to those seen during the 2023 banking crisis—under a stagflationary environment.
Policy Game and Industry Future
The Trump administration has adopted a “carrot and stick” approach toward cryptocurrencies: on one hand, it supports the inclusion of Bitcoin as part of national reserves; on the other, it uses tariffs and regulatory measures to crack down on gray-market transactions. Should the U.S. Treasury further restrict Chinese exports of rare earth materials (such as tungsten and indium), the impact on mining rig chip manufacturing could force the industry to accelerate its technological iteration.
For ordinary investors, it is advisable to focus on compliant exchanges (such as the stablecoin trading channels provided by JuCoin) and hashrate derivative products while avoiding highly volatile altcoins.
Neason Oliver
