Tariff Policy Upgrade: The “Black Swan” Event for the Crypto Market
On April 9, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, while imposing a 10% tariff on trade partners such as Canada and Mexico with a 90-day buffer period. This policy not only disrupts traditional trade but also triggers a chain reaction in the crypto industry. As a global hub for hashing power and trading, the crypto market saw Bitcoin rise by 7% within 24 hours following the announcement.
Short-Term Volatility: Heightened Risk Asset Characteristics
The tariff policy directly intensifies the connection between the crypto market and traditional finance. For example, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have become highly synchronized with U.S. tech stocks. Immediately after the policy announcement, investors rapidly sold high-risk assets, hitting the crypto market hard. Data indicates that North American mining operations faced a doubling of Chinese mining rig import costs, prompting several miners to initiate capacity transfers to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, stablecoins such as USDT and USDC saw surges in cross-border payment demand, although potential U.S. sanctions continue to threaten their liquidity.
For ordinary investors, the market’s extreme volatility has sharply increased the risks of leveraged trading. According to JuCoin platform data, leverage usage among users dropped by 15% on the day of the announcement, as more investors shifted towards spot trading to avoid liquidation risk.
Structural Impact: Three-Pronged Challenges for Mining, Payments, and Regulation
Risk of Disruption in the Mining Equipment Supply Chain
Chinese mining rig manufacturers hold about 70% of the global market share, and the imposition of a 125% tariff by the U.S. has directly led to soaring export costs for ASIC miners. North American mining operators, such as “GreenHash,” reported that their equipment procurement budgets for 2025 have increased by 40%, and they plan to establish assembly centers in Vietnam to reduce costs. This trend may reshape global distribution of mining power, boosting emerging mining hubs in the Middle East and Latin America.
The Double-Edged Sword Effect on Stablecoins
Heightened trade tensions have led to depreciation of emerging market currencies, which in turn spurs a 200% surge in USDT trading volumes in regions such as Latin America and Africa. However, the U.S. Treasury recently placed Tether on a “priority watchlist.” If account freezes are implemented, it could trigger a liquidity crisis for stablecoins.
Regulatory Arbitrage and Compliance Pressure
Countries are expediting crypto legislation to address risks stemming from the trade war. The EU’s MiCA regulation now requires trading platforms to disclose asset risks associated with tariff policies, while the U.S. is considering expanding semiconductor export restrictions, which may affect the supply of high-end miner chips.
Future Outlook: The Adaptive Evolution of the Crypto Market
Despite the short-term negative impacts, in the long term, the tariff policy may force innovation within the industry:
Rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Tools:
In an effort to bypass traditional cross-border payment barriers, enterprises are likely to shift toward on-chain settlement protocols. For example, JuCoin’s cross-border payment solution has already processed over US$500 million in trade-related transactions.
Regionalized Mining Networks:
Chinese mining companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with the share of mining power in Kazakhstan increasing from 8% in 2023 to 18% in 2025.
Reinstatement of Bitcoin’s “Digital Gold” Attribute:
If tariffs drive global inflation higher, historical data suggests that for every 1% increase in the U.S. CPI, Bitcoin’s 30-day price gain averages around 4.2%.
Understanding the underlying dynamics and technological shifts is key for investors navigating these volatile times while positioning themselves for long-term industry innovation.
Neason Oliver
